For decades, the United States was the super power of the grain world, holding one-third of the international trade in wheat and shipping roughly seven of every 10 bushels sold on the world market. The world market is growing in size, but USDA analysts say the United States is falling off the pace.
U.S. wheat exports are declining in volume, just as wheat production has fallen in recent decades. Growers are shifting to other crops, corn and soybeans in particular, that look more profitable. “Other exports have capitalized on the opportunity,” write USDA economists Olga Liefert and David Nulph in Amber Waves magazine. “Competition from Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina has weighed down on U.S wheat exports, while Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine are driving down the U.S. corn export share.”
The United States is forecast to be the No. 3 wheat exporter this marketing year but will remain top in corn. The U.S. share of the wheat market would be 15 percent and its share of the corn market is forecast for 37 percent. Biofuels are a powerful competitor for U.S corn. More than twice as many bushels of corn are used in making ethanol than are exported—5.6 billion bushels vs 2.4 billion bushels—this marketing year.