American farmers will plant 7.6 million more acres of corn, soybeans and wheat, the “big three” crops of modern U.S. agriculture, this year than last, according to USDA estimates. With normal weather and trend-line yields, the result could be the largest soybean crop ever and the biggest corn crop since record production in 2016.
Analysts said the greatest worry among the major crops fell on soybeans this year. The soybean stockpile is smaller than expected at this point of the year and hinting at a pinch in supplies before the new crop is ready for harvest in late summer.
Based on a survey of nearly 73,000 farm operators, the USDA estimated on Friday plantings of 92 million acres of corn, 87.5 million acres of soybeans and 49.9 million acres of wheat this year, an increase of 7.6 million acres, or 3 percent. Land planted to corn would expand by 3.4 million acres, soybeans by 55,000 acres and wheat by 4.2 million acres.
The corn crop could total 15.1 billion bushels, soybeans 4.5 billion bushels and wheat 1.9 billion bushels, based on USDA projections of abandonment rates for the crops — land sown but not harvested — and yields per acre. If so, the corn crop would be only the third to exceed 15 billion bushels and the largest since the record 15.15 billion bushels in 2016. The soybean crop might top the 4.465 billion bushels of 2021, the largest soybean crop yet. Wheat production would be the second largest since 2016, when wheat sowings went into a slump.
The USDA will make its first projections of the fall harvest in May.
High commodity prices are encouraging farmers to plant more land this year. The USDA said 318.1 million acres would be devoted to the two dozen “principal” U.S. crops, ranging from corn and wheat to chickpeas, sugar beets and potatoes, an increase of 6 million acres from 2022. The 229.4 million acres of corn, soybeans and wheat would amount to seven of every 10 acres in principal crops.
The 2022 wheat crop would sell for an average $9 a bushel at the farm gate, its highest season-average price on record, according to USDA. The 2022 corn and soybean crops would fetch their second-highest season-average prices. This year’s crops are projected to sell for lower average prices but still be above historical levels.
Grain traders had expected soybean plantings of 88.3 million acres, an increase of nearly 800,000 acres, rather than the 55,000 acres than producers indicated to USDA. They also believed soybean stocks would be larger than USDA reported — 1.74 billion bushels vs. 1.69 billion bushels. Chicago grains analyst Jerry Gidel said the stocks figure was the bigger surprise of the two because it pointed to tight supplies at the end of the marketing year.
Another analyst labeled USDA’s planting forecasts optimistic and said they would require favorable spring weather to be achieved.
The annual USDA Prospective Plantings report is available here.
The quarterly USDA Grain Stocks report is available here.