Instead of idling some land because of low commodity prices, farmers are plunging into soybeans, which have been taking an ever-larger share of U.S. farmland. In a USDA survey, growers said they will plant a record 88.5 million acres of soybeans this spring, 7 percent more than a year ago because they offer a better chance of a profit than corn or wheat.
Soybeans are the ascendant crop of the “big three” U.S. crops. The oilseed has exceeded wheat sowings since 1998 and will nearly tie corn this year as the most widely planted crop in the country. USDA estimates corn plantings at 90 million acres, a scant half-a-million acres ahead of soybeans.
Just five years ago, growers planted 77.2 million acres of soybeans. If they follow through with plans for 88.5 million acres this year, that will be a 15-percent increase in area since 2012. In many states, soybeans are a rotational crop, grown in combination with corn, and in other areas, they are an alternative crop to wheat or cotton. There are huge U.S. stockpiles of corn and soybeans but soybean prices suggest a higher return to growers, according to analysts.
At its Outlook Forum at the end of February, USDA projected a 1.5-percent, or nearly 4 million-acre, drop in plantings of the eight major U.S. crops — corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sorghum, barley, oats and rice. The Prospective Plantings report, based on a survey of 83,000 growers during the first two weeks of March, indicates eight crop plantings will be unchanged or marginally larger than in 2016. The 6-million-acre increase in soybeans — larger than any trade estimate — is the overriding reason for the change in outlook.
If plantings are as large as farmers indicate, the U.S. soybean crop could hit 4.25 billion bushels, the second-largest crop ever, after last year’s 4.307 billion bushels. The corn crop could be 14.0-14.1 billion bushels, the third-largest on record.
The prospect of record-large U.S. soybean seedings combined with rising estimates of the crop in Brazil and Argentina knocked down futures prices for soybeans on Friday, said Agrimoney. Soybeans for delivery in May were down 1.9 percent at the end of the day, at just under $9.45 a bushel. “Prices have only closed lower once since early April last year,” said Agrimoney. May corn futures rose 2 percent because farmers said they would plant fewer acres than traders expected.
Growers told USDA they will plant 46.1 million acres of wheat, down 8 percent from last year and in line with USDA projections at the Outlook Forum. “This represents the lowest total planted area for the United States since records began in 1919,” said the Prospective Plantings report. Wheat has lost ground since 1981, when 88.25 million acres were sown. Corn and soybean yields have grown more rapidly, giving the crops an advantage on potential revenue per acre, and seed companies have developed strains that allow farmers to plant corn and soybeans in areas that previously were too cool or dry for them.