Apparently due to the pandemic, the United States was running its smallest agricultural trade balance at the nine-month mark in a fiscal year, $1.7 billion, since the turn of the century, according to USDA data. The sector ordinarily is a bright spot in U.S. trade data, with annual surpluses that can run into the tens of billions of dollars.
USDA data showed steep declines in corn and cotton exports in fiscal 2020 compared to the previous year — corn down 11 percent and cotton down 19 percent — with vegetables and prepared fruit exports also suffering. Meanwhile, imports of beef and veal and of sugar and related products were up by 13 percent apiece. Through June, the most recent month in USDA records, exports totaled $102.2 billion and imports were $100.5 billion.
“The longer Covid-19 impacts consumers worldwide, the more unlikely it is that exports will make up for lost sales thus far,” wrote economist Veronica Nigh of the American Farm Bureau Federation. “Could 2020 be the first year in recent memory that U.S. agriculture experiences a trade deficit? Only time will tell.”
June was the fourth month is a row to show a deficit, with the deficits increasing in size since the coronavirus became a pandemic. “The effect on international trade is coming into focus,” said Nigh.
While agricultural trade showed a surplus on a fiscal year basis through June, there was a deficit of $2.9 billion on a calendar year basis, according to USDA data. USDA tracks imports by their customs value. If imports are tallied by CIF — costs, insurance and freight — there is a small deficit through June for this fiscal year.
In May, the USDA forecast farm exports of $136.5 billion and a trade surplus of $6.3 billion for fiscal 2020. On Aug. 26, it is scheduled to update its fiscal 2020 estimate and make the first forecast of fiscal 2021 exports and imports.