U.S. growers will curtail cotton plantings due to the lowest prospective prices in six years with the harvest to contract by 13 percent from its 2014 total, according to a survey of growers by the National Cotton Council. The survey, completed in mid-January, pointed to a crop of 14 million bales vs 16.08 million bales last year. That would make it the third-smallest in a decade. Plantings would total 9.4 million acres, down 15 percent.
Soybeans, corn, sorghum and wheat would replace cotton, as they are likely to be more profitable. “History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions,” said council vice president Gary Adams. Growers in the Southeast and Mid-South said they would plant soybeans for the most part, although some will shift to peanuts. In Texas, the No. 1 cotton state, the shift is to sorghum, wheat and corn.
The United States is one of the major cotton-growing nations of the world and exports most of its crop. There is a huge global surplus of cotton, and lower-priced polyester is displacing cotton in the fabric industry. The world’s largest cotton importer, China, is cutting back on purchases. The cotton council forecasts China will import 6.2 million bales in 2015, vs 7.1 million bales in 2013.
Last week, the International Cotton Advisory Council said it expected a 10 percent cut in U.S. cotton planting and a 7 percent drop in the harvest. Based on conditions in November, the USDA has projected upland plantings of 9.8 million acres and an upland crop of 13.8 milllion bales. The cotton council survey suggested upland plantings of 9.2 million acres and a crop of 13.3 million bales.
According to the cotton council, the U.S. crop would include 694,000 bales of Pima cotton, a more luxurious strain for which market prices are more attractive. Pima output would rise by 5 percent while the upland cotton production shrinks. The council said its survey was taken when growers expected larger allotments of irrigation water in California than in 2014. “Final acreage will be affected by actual water allocations, which remain uncertain,” said an NCC statement.