U.S. grain bins hold the largest stockpile of corn in three decades — 32-percent larger than a year ago — and there will be little chance to reduce it given that a bumper crop is being harvested this fall. The outlook suggests comparatively low market prices through late 2018 at a minimum, possibly adding to pressure for larger federal supports as Congress writes the new farm bill.
In its quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA estimated the corn stockpile on Sept. 1 at 2.295 billion bushels, up 558 million bushels from the previous Sept. 1, thanks to the first U.S. crop to top 15 billion bushels. Traditionally, Sept. 1 marks the start of harvest and the beginning of a new marketing year. Corn stocks were the largest since the 4.259 billion bushels of Sept. 1, 1988, when the worst early-season drought since the Great Depression slashed corn production. By the next September, the inventory was less than half as large.
Although corn supplies are mammoth, they were slightly smaller than expected by traders, as was USDA’s estimate of soybean stocks, at 301 million bushels, the largest in 11 years. The smaller soybean stocks figure reflected USDA’s revision of the 2016 harvest to 4.296 billion bushels — still the largest ever, although 11-million smaller than originally thought. This year’s crop is forecast to be 4.431 billion bushels, which would top last year’s mark.
The Small Grains report, issued at the same time, said the U.S. wheat crop, at 1.741 billion bushels, was the smallest in 15 years although marginally larger than expected. Growers curtailed sowings this year because of low market prices and large global supplies