In the space of two months, the USDA has shaved more than half-a-billion bushels from its estimate of this year’s corn harvest and pared the soybean forecast by a similar 3.5 percent. The crop are still bin-busters but they are more manageable than initially expected and should fetch much higher prices per bushel when marketed.
Farmers will harvest 14.722 billion bushels of corn, the second-largest crop ever, and 4.268 billion bushels of soybeans, No. 4 on the list of largest crops, the government said on Friday. When USDA made its first estimates of the fall harvest in August, corn was predicted at a record 15.278 billion bushels and soybean forecast, at 4.425 billion bushels, was only a hair behind the record 4.428 billion bushels of 2018. Dry late-summer weather in parts of the Corn Belt and the devastating August derecho in central and eastern Iowa reduced crop prospects.
Besides the smaller harvests, the USDA has reduced its estimates of the corn and soybean stockpiles on hand on Sept. 1, the start of the 2020/21 market year for the crops. As a result, supplies are smaller than expected, which should bring higher market prices. The USDA says this year’s corn crop will sell for an average $3.60 a bushel and soybeans for $9.80 a bushel. In August, season-average for corn was forecast at $3.10 a bushel and soybeans, $8.35 a bushel.
The soybean stockpile was a record 909 million bushels when the 2019 crop was ready for harvest. It will be one-third as large, 290 million bushels, at the end of the current marketing year, said the USDA, thanks to strong demand for the oilseed, including a recovery in exports battered by the China-U.S. trade war.
The monthly Crop Production report is available here.
The companion WASDE report is available here.