At the three-quarter point in the trade year, U.S. food and agricultural imports were nearly $7 billion larger than farm exports, $148.2 billion vs. $141.4 billion, according to USDA data released on Thursday. The agency has forecast a $17 billion food trade deficit for the 12 months ending on Sept. 30, due to a drop-off in corn, wheat, beef, and poultry exports, while demand remained strong for imports that include wine, coffee, beer, fresh fruits and vegetables, and distilled spirits.
If the USDA forecast proves accurate, this will be the third time in the last five years to register a food trade deficit. The USDA was scheduled on Aug. 31 to update its export and import estimates for this year and make its first estimate of agricultural trade in fiscal 2024. The USDA figures released on Thursday covered sales through June.
At the nine-month point in 2022, farm exports totaled $152.1 billion, on the way to a record $196.4 in annual sales and a trade surplus of $2.4 billion. Export totals were forecast to slow this year in the face of lower commodity prices and slower global economic growth than in 2022.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said $4.05 billion worth of pork was exported from January through June, up 12 percent from the same period in 2022. One fourth of the sales, $1.07 billion, were to Mexico. Beef exports totaled nearly $5 billion, 19 percent lower than in the first six months of 2022.