U.S. agricultural exports have begun to rally and will continue the record-setting pace that began in 2009, USDA reported, in an estimate for fiscal year 2017 and a revised forecast for fiscal year 2016. China has now advanced to the No. 1 export market for U.S. farm goods, surpassing Canada.
“The projected $133 billion in total exports for FY 2017 is up $6 billion from last forecast and would be the sixth-highest total on record,” USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said. The United States’ agricultural trade surplus is also projected to rise to $19.5 billion, up 40 percent from $13.9 billion in FY 2016. The United States has continued to post an agricultural trade surplus since recordkeeping began in the 1960s.
The projected growth is being led by overseas sales of U.S. oilseeds and products, horticultural goods, cotton, livestock, dairy and poultry. And with a rise in global economic growth, global beef demand is expected to strengthen.
“While USDA continues working to eliminate the remaining restrictions on U.S. beef exports that were instituted by some trading partners as a result of the December 2003 BSE detection, U.S. beef exports have recovered,” Vilsack said, speaking of Mad Cow disease. U.S. beef exports are expected to reach $5.3 billion in 2017, well above the $1.5 billion exported in FY 2004, the statement said.
USDA also revised the forecast for FY 2016 exports to $127 billion, up $2.5 billion from the previous forecast. This would bring total agricultural exports since 2009 to more than $1 trillion, smashing all previous eight-year totals.
“Exports are responsible for 20 percent of U.S. farm income, also driving rural economic activity and supporting more than one million American jobs on and off the farm,” Vilsack said. “The United States has the opportunity to expand those benefits even further through passage of new trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.”
Though she supported it in the past, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has said that she no longer favors the TPP. Republican nominee Donald Trump also fiercely opposes it and blames China for unfair trade practices.