Conventional wisdom says EPA will release the overdue 2014 ethanol mandate after Tuesday’s midterm elections and lawsuits will follow, no matter what target is set for ethanol’s share of the gasoline market. Ethanol producers could base their case on the two words deleted from the 2007 energy law – distribution capacity, says Reuters. The law gives EPA the authority to adjust the ethanol mandate if there is inadequate domestic supply. “Distribution capacity” was an alternative justification in early drafts of the law but the language was removed by the time it was enacted.
Last fall, EPA proposed a relaxation of the ethanol mandate on grounds the fuel market was nearly saturated at the traditional blend rate of 10 percent ethanol and 90 percent petroleum. The proposal would have held ethanol to 13 billion gallons or thereabouts, instead of advancing toward the statutory goal of 15 billion gallons annually from 2015. Reuters quotes a oil company executive as saying a lawsuit is certain – “You could have Moses handing down the RFS on stone tablets and someone is going to sue.”