Ukrainian grain terminals on the Danube River have blossomed in importance during the war with Russia and now account for 65 percent of the nation’s grain exports, said three agricultural economists at the farmdoc daily blog. “Meanwhile, farmers are waiting to see how domestic prices will respond to these new routes [the Danube ports and EU ‘solidarity lanes’] to finalize plans for the next planting season.”
Winter wheat plantings are expected to be almost the same as for this year’s harvest, although growers may reduce corn plantings in favor of more profitable crops such as rapeseed, sugar beets, and soybeans. Domestic grain prices have fallen, pinching farm revenue, due to the expense and difficulty of moving grain onto the international market during wartime. Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil but volumes have fallen since the Russian invasion.
“Only 4 percent of all Ukrainian grain exports were shipped through these ports before the war, but they now help move about 65 percent of all Ukrainian grain exports,” wrote Iuliia Tetteh, of Illinois State University, and Joana Colussi and Nick Paulson of the University of Illinois. The maximum capacity of the ports is 35 million metric tons a year. The Ukrainian Grain Association says 49 million metric tons could be exported this trade year, mostly through the Danube ports and by truck and rail shipments on the solidarity lanes into Europe.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported harvest of more than 67 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds so far this year, reported the news site Ukrinform. The Ukrainian Grain Association says the overall harvest may be 10 percent larger this year than in 2022.