The 2018 elections are barely on the horizon yet two Democrats on the Senate Agriculture Committee, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, rate among “the three most vulnerable seats” in the Senate, says Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Both are from states that voted heavily for President Trump and “start as coin flips,” says the political tip sheet, which lists only three races, in Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri, as toss-ups.
In an electoral oddity, seven of the 10 Democrats and only one of 11 Republicans on the Agriculture Committee are up for re-election in 2018, when the new farm bill is due. The Crystal Ball says two of the eight – Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand of New York state and Alabama Republican Luther Strange – hold safe seats.
Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown’s re-election outlook “leans” Democratic, said the Crystal Ball. Three other Democrats, Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, were on stronger ground, in races that are “likely” Democratic. Brown may be challenged again by state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who Brown beat, 51-45, in 2012. Republicans running against Stabenow, Klobuchar and Casey “are probably longer shots” writes Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Crystal Ball. “Trump won Michigan and Pennsylvania last year and came close in Minnesota, but the Senate incumbents in all three states each have won multiple statewide victories and ran ahead of Obama in 2012.”
Possible GOP challengers to Democratic incumbents, said the Crystal Ball, include Reps. Jim Banks, Luke Messer and Todd Rokita in Indiana; Rep. Fred Upton in Michigan; Rep. Kevin Cramer in North Dakota; and Rep. Pat Tiberi in Ohio. “For the most part, these House members have safe seats,” so if they run, it would be a sign they believe the tide is running their way.