A raft of newcomers will take office in the House in January, regardless of the outcome of the Nov. 6 elections, because nearly 1 in 6 current representatives is retiring or running for another office. The turnover could magnify the already substantial change in membership the House Agriculture Committee sees every two years and potentially affect food and farm policy.
Throughout the House, committee memberships get shuffled at the start of each two-year session of Congress as lawmakers switch assignments and newcomers fill panel vacancies. Agriculture is a common starting point for many first-term representatives. In 2015, 14 of 45 members of the committee were newcomers, and in 2017, 12 of 46 panelists were new to the committee.
Ambition and retirement will open four seats on House Agriculture for 2019. Democrats Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico and Tim Walz of Minnesota are running for governor of their home states and are leading in the polls. Republican Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, author of punitive farmworker legislation, will retire at the end of the year as will Democrat Rick Nolan of Minnesota.
Another seat could open up if Democrats win control of the House — they are soft favorites at present. If they do, Massachusetts Rep. Jim McGovern, the leading House advocate of food stamps, is likely to chair the Rules Committee, the gatekeeper for House debate on bills, and might give up his seat on Agriculture, which oversees food stamps. A McGovern aide was not immediately available to comment on his plans.
All sides say they want to enact the 2018 farm bill this year, but House-Senate negotiators are at odds on issues from food stamps to land stewardship and farm subsidies. “We’ve been trying to push this thing,” said Rep. Collin Peterson, the senior Democrat on House Agriculture.
If the so-called conferees reach agreement during the lame duck session, the midterm elections would carry an indirect impact. If Democrats win control of the House, the GOP would lose bargaining power to apply stricter and broader-reaching work requirements for SNAP participants. If Republicans retain the majority but lose seats, they might claim a mandate, since President Trump supports new or tougher work requirements for social welfare programs. The GOP-written House farm bill would require an estimated 7 million “work-capable” adults aged 18 to 59 to work at least 20 hours a week or spend equivalent time in job training or workfare to qualify for SNAP benefits.
The committee’s leaders, chairman Michael Conaway of Texas and Peterson, the senior Democrat, are solid bets to win new terms. They would remain as the senior members of the panel in the new session. Their roles would switch if Democrats win control — Peterson would be chairman and Conaway the minority leader. A chairman from the Midwest would have a different perspective than one from the southern Plains, “and that could make a difference on some issues,” said Pat Westhoff of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, a think tank.
Three members of the House Agriculture Committee are in toss-up races: Republicans Jeff Denham of California, Mike Bost of Illinois, and John Faso of New York. Two others, Republicans Rodney Davis of Illinois and Don Bacon of Nebraska, are in races that “lean Republican,” according to the political website Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The outcomes of those races could add to the turnover on the Agriculture Committee.