Turnover is certain on House Agriculture roster, elections will determine its scale

One-fourth of the members of the House Agriculture Committee are in tight re-election races, according to political handicappers, a factor in the likely upheaval of the committee roster in 2025. Turnover is a fact of life on the committee — only half of its current members served on the panel two years ago.

Representatives routinely change committees as they gain House seniority and try to align their assignments with the makeup of their districts. The “churn” in membership could slow committee work temporarily. Agriculture Committee leaders often speak of the need to educate newcomers to the complexity and scope of the farm bill, sure to lead their agenda in January if there is no agreement during the lame duck session opening next week.

While most Americans live in town, rural districts are expected to play a prominent role in deciding whether Republicans will continue to control the House or if Democrats will have a majority. Thirteen of the 43 most competitive races involve House Agriculture Committee members.

Five of them are in toss-up races: Republicans Marc Molinaro of New York State, John Duarte of California, Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon, and Democrats Yadira Caraveo of Colorado and Marie Glusenkamp-Perez of Washington State. Seven are regarded as slight favorites; Republicans Zach Nunn of Iowa and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, and Democrats Jahana Hayes of Connecticut, Don Davis of North Carolina, Eric Sorensen of Illinois, Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico, and Angie Craig of Minnesota. Republican Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska is rated as an underdog in a rematch against Democrat Tony Vargas in the Omaha area.

Two Democratic members of the committee are certain to leave. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan is running for the Senate and Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running for governor of Virginia. Both of those seats are highly contested.

The leaders of the 54-member committee, Chairman Glenn Thompson, a Pennsylvania Republican, and senior Democrat David Scott of Georgia, were safe bets for re-election, as were most of the committee’s members.

When Thompson became chairman in early 2023, 15 of the 29 Republicans on the committee were returning members. Ten of the 25 Democrats were returnees. Several members were defeated in the 2022 elections, creating openings on the committee, but some members decided to move on.

By contrast, the Senate Agriculture Committee was a model of stability. Twenty of its 23 members were returnees when the committee set to work in 2023. There will be turnover in the new session. Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow, Michigan Democrat, is retiring and Republican Mike Braun is expected to be elected governor of Indiana on Tuesday. Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown is in a tossup race for re-election and Nebraska Republican Deb Fischer faces a surprisingly strong challenge by an independent.

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