Economic turmoil in China, the world’s largest importer of rice and soybeans, could dampen world trade in feedstuffs and soybeans, said the International Grains Council. In its monthly Grain Market Report, IGC said the global soybean carry-over already is expected to reach a record 44 million tonnes. Swollen by the third bumper crop in a row, the U.S. stockpile is forecast to grow in size while it shrinks in Brazil and Argentina, the two major U.S. rivals.
The IGC forecast global soybean trade at 125 million tonnes, a record, for the trade year that opens with this year’s harvest. “But the outlook is tentative given heightened economic worries in China, the world’s biggest buyer,” said IGC.
“As China has recently been a heavy importer of feedstuffs, including sorghum, barley and DDG [distillers dried grains], traders are wary of potential changes to state support mechanisms, which could alter buying patterns,” said the council, based in London.
Larger than expected wheat and barley crops in Europe and the former Soviet Union prompted the IGC to raise its forecast of world grain production this year by nearly 1 percent. The council also raised its forecasts of U.S. sorghum and corn crops while lowering its estimates for corn in Europe and spring wheat in Canada.