Rick Bertrand hopes to turn conservative firebrand Steve King, who backed ethanol skeptic Ted Cruz in the Iowa presidential caucuses, into the first Republican incumbent to lose a House primary race this year. If Bertrand scores in the Iowa primary today, it will be an upset if only because incumbents have won renomination 98 percent of the time since 1946.
King, now in his seventh term and a self-described “full-spectrum constitutional conservative,” raised more campaign funds than Bertrand and is endorsed by most of the state’s top elected officials—usually the hallmarks of a winning campaign.
Bertrand, a state senator, says King is ineffective and makes splashy statements on national policy at the expense of his home, an agriculture-dominated district in the northwestern quadrant of Iowa. As an example, he says King has the longest tenure on the House Agriculture Committee but never became chairman because of feuds with party leaders.
Cruz won the Iowa caucuses despite calling for a five-year phase-out of the federal mandate to use ethanol and other biofuels. Corn ethanol provides the bulk of U.S. ethanol and Iowa is No. 1 in corn and ethanol production. Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad urged Iowans to vote for ethanol backers in the caucuses. The governor has not endorsed King in the primary, but both U.S. senators have. Cruz named King as a national co-chair of his unsuccessful campaign for the GOP presidential nomination. King said he would vote against ethanol cuts.
On the Agriculture Committee roster, King ranks behind the current chairman, Michael Conaway of Texas, and two former chairmen. He also doesn’t chair a subcommittee on any of the three committees on which he sits, Agriculture, Judiciary and Small Business.
Iowa State University professor Steffen Schmidt told the Sioux City Journal that to prevail, Bertrand should have done more to raise doubts among voters about King.
Whoever wins, the district is counted as safely Republican. The Democratic nominee will be Kim Weaver, the party chair in O’Brien County.
To date, Democrat Chaka Fattah, of Pennsylvania, is the only incumbent to lose a party primary this year. The Washington Post has put the spotlight on Rep. Renee Ellmers of North Carolina as the Republican facing the longest odds in a primary election. Thanks to redistricting, Ellmers is running against another incumbent, George Holding, in a three-way race with a plurality, not a majority, needed to win. “Holding appears to be the favorite in the race,” says Ballotpedia.
Also today, Iowans will choose the Democratic nominee to run against six-term Sen. Charles Grassley, a Republican and chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Former lieutenant governor Patty Judge led the field of four in a Des Moines Register poll.