Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a member of President Trump’s agriculture advisory committee in 2016, is following the president’s no-apology campaign style in the Senate runoff election against former U.S. agriculture secretary Mike Espy, a Democrat. Hyde-Smith is the front-runner in strongly Republican Mississippi, although her campaign has been compromised by offensive and seemingly offhand remarks she made about public hangings.
“She is still the front-runner. She is a wounded front-runner,” said Nathan Shrader, assistant professor of political science at Millsaps College in Jackson, Miss. He said the senator’s comments about a supporter — “If he invited me to a public hanging, I’d be on the front row” — rubbed “such a raw nerve in Mississippi” with its history of racial violence that it invited questions about Hyde-Smith’s judgment and could fuel enthusiasm for Espy, who in 1986 was the first black elected to the U.S. House from Mississippi since Reconstruction. He was agriculture secretary under President Clinton.
Political experts told the Jackson Clarion-Ledger that the video of Hyde-Smith’s remarks could be a turning point in the Senate race. A cattle rancher, Hyde-Smith twice was elected state agriculture commissioner before being appointed this spring to succeed longtime Sen. Thad Cochran, who left the Senate because of health problems. The winner of the Nov. 27 runoff will serve the final two years of Cochran’s term and then be up for re-election in 2020. In 2011, Hyde-Smith became the first woman elected to statewide office in Mississippi when she won the race for agriculture commissioner. She is Mississippi’s first woman U.S. senator.
Espy promises to be an independent-minded senator dedicated to making Mississippi “a Land of Opportunity for ALL of its citizens,” according to his campaign website, which carries the headline “Rise Above.” Hyde-Smith’s site promises “a rock-solid conservative for Mississippi” and highlights her views on abortion, immigration, and gun rights. “We need Cindy to win in Mississippi!” Trump says on the campaign site.
In a statement over the weekend, Hyde-Smith said her unscripted comments about a fellow rancher were “an exaggerated expression of regard, and any attempt to turn this into a negative connotation is ridiculous.” Facing reporters after being endorsed by an anti-abortion group on Monday, she referred repeatedly to the statement, insisting, “That’s all I’m going to say about it.”
On CNN, Espy said Hyde-Smith’s comments were “hurtful to millions of Mississippians who are people of goodwill” and perpetuated harmful stereotypes about the southern state. A statement by his campaign called the remarks “reprehensible.”
The candidates, who ran neck and neck in a four-way nonpartisan primary on Nov. 6, agreed to a Nov. 20 broadcast debate sponsored by the Mississippi Farm Bureau. Hyde-Smith took 41.5 percent of the vote and Espy 40.5 percent. A runoff was mandatory because no one got a majority. State Sen. Chris McDaniel, a Republican, took 16 percent of the vote in the primary; Hyde-Smith should inherit most of that block in the runoff, bolstering her chances. Trump campaigned for Hyde-Smith ahead of the Nov. 6 election.
If Espy wins, it would reduce the margin of control for Republicans in the Senate. Hyde-Smith has a fund-raising advantage over Espy. Mississippi has increasingly favored Republicans in recent years, and Trump carried the state by a 3-to-2 ratio over Hillary Clinton two years ago.
This fall, Trump had a 51 percent approval rating and a 43 percent disapproval rating in the State of the State Survey by Millsaps College and Chism Strategies. His approval rating was on par with Gov. Phil Bryant’s and state Attorney General Jim Hood’s, though Trump’s disapproval rating was notably higher.
The controversy over Hyde-Smith’s comments could discourage some Republicans from voting in the runoff election, said Shrader. “That’s a real possibility.”