China will remain the world’s largest soybean importer in coming years even if the trade war with the United States is not settled, but it won’t be buying as much of the oilseed, said USDA analysts on Wednesday. They projected a rise in imports of 32 million tonnes during the decade ahead, which is “much slower than the 46 [million-tonne], 10-year increase projected for 2017-27 last year.”
U.S. soybean exports will also be slowed by the trade war, said the USDA in its long-term baseline report, which was delayed from February by the 35-day partial government shutdown. The USDA projects exports will reach 61.4 million tonnes in 2028/29. In its 2018 baseline report, the USDA projected that U.S. soy exports would grow to 68.4 million tonnes in 2027/28.
“Brazil and Argentina, with combined projected growth in exports of 27.2 [million tonnes], may meet most of China’s growing demand for soybeans,” said the report. China is projected to import 126 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2028/29 trade year, buying nearly two-thirds of all the soybeans on the world market.
The sorghum trade would also be hit. The USDA sees steady imports of 2 million tonnes a year by China for the decade ahead, while U.S. exports are expected to stay steady at 3.8 million tonnes annually, a sharp drop from previous projections. China is the world’s largest market for sorghum and the United States is the largest exporter. China is expected to boost its imports of barley, a feed grain that can replace corn and sorghum in livestock feed.
“In contrast, projected U.S. exports of corn and cotton in 2027 are higher than the previous year’s projections, despite China’s tariffs,” said the USDA. “The higher projections may be due to growth in sales to other countries and higher overall global demand, which may offset effects of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. corn and cotton.”