The Republican–Democrat battle for control of the House “looks something like a coin flip,” writes Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a weekly political analysis. The Crystal Ball says that three members of the House Agriculture Committee, Democrat Rick Nolan of Minnesota and Republicans John Faso of New York and Jeff Denham of California, are toss-ups for re-election next year.
Faso and Nolan are new additions to the toss-up category; previously the Crystal Ball said conditions leaned in their favor. Denham was already on the list. Another toss-up is the race for the southern Minnesota seat held by Tim Walz, a Democrat, who is leaving the House Agriculture Committee at the end of 2018 and running for governor.
Among the 25 changes in ratings of House campaigns, the Crystal Ball said that House Agriculture member Jim Costa, a California Democrat, looked safe for reelection and that Illinois Republican Mike Bost was a “likely” victor, a step down from its previous assessment of the district as leaning Republican. Previously Costa, third in seniority among Democrats on House Ag, was listed as “likely.”
Kondik said the trend nationwide “is undeniably Democratic in nature, but its scope cannot be determined with any precision now.” Democratic prospects are boosted by low popularity ratings for President Trump, rising voter identification as Democrat, success in off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia early this month, and the long-running trend — true 36 of 39 times since the Civil War — that midterm elections favor the party that does not control the White House.
To read the Crystal Ball’s assessment of House races, click here.