By a tiny margin, Rep. Jeff Denham, a fourth-term Republican from the Central Valley of California, may be the most endangered member of the House Agriculture Committee, although two other Republican panelists are also in toss-up races. Analysts say Democrats increasingly are likely to win control of the House in the elections six weeks away.
The analytical site FiveThirtyEight says Democrats have a 4 in 5 chance of winning a majority. Republicans now hold a 236-193 advantage with six vacancies. Democrats are “soft favorites” to prevail, says Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Put it all together and our best guess right now is a Democratic House gain of somewhere in the low-to-mid 30s.” The party needs to pick up 23 seats to achieve a majority so “the GOP still has an opportunity to retain the House with some breaks.”
Republican hopes of writing welfare reform into the farm bill would evaporate if Democrats win control of the House and if compromise continues to elude farm bill negotiators. House Agriculture chairman Mike Conaway told the Odessa American that he expects Republicans to wind up with a slim majority after the Nov. 6 election.
An array of political handicappers rank Denham, first-term Rep. John Faso of New York state and second-term Rep. Mike Bost, from Southern Illinois in races that are too-close-to-call. FiveThirtyEight gives a slight edge to Josh Harder, the Democrat running against Denham. It says Harder’s chances of winning are 7 in 10.
“We call him ‘Bay Area Harder’ because he aligns himself with Bay Area issues,” Denham said during a weekend debate in Turlock, according the Modesto Bee. A former venture capitalist who now teaches business classes at Modesto Junior College, Harder said Denham failed to secure any federal funds for Central Valley water projects during his time in Congress. Both accused the other of being bankrolled by outside interests. Denham served in the Air Force from 1984-88 and was a state senator for eight years before election to the House in 2010.
When the men spoke to the Sacramento Bee’s editorial board last week, Harder criticized Denham for voting in 2017 to repeal the Affordable Care Act and Denham pointed to his support of agricultural guest worker legislation.
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton carried Denham’s district by 3 percentage points in 2016. Former president Barack Obama, who won the district in 2012, appeared at a Sept. 8 rally for Harder and six other Democrats running for the House.
A former firefighter and state legislator, Bost is challenged by Brendan Kelly, the St. Clair County state’s attorney. Kelly says he is the first prosecutor in Illinois to sue drug makers in the opioid crisis. Bost says he has worked for regulatory relief and to improve health care for veterans, says Ballotpedia.
Both national parties have targeted Faso’s race in a district that begins near Albany and runs in a broad swath southward along the Hudson River, says Ballotpedia. Faso and the Democratic nominee, Antonio Delgado, a Rhodes Scholar, are lawyers by training. Faso has highlighted work on climate change and the opioid crisis. Delgado supports universal health care and wants to bring investment into the district.