The U.S. soybean hit parade, with record production in 2016, 2017, and 2018, will continue this year with the largest crop ever, the government forecast on Tuesday with the harvest in full swing. A late-summer surge in likely yields per acre prompted the USDA to say the crop will be 2 percent larger than its previous estimate.
This year’s crop, while a mammoth 4.448 billion bushels, would be a hair’s breadth larger — a scant 20 million bushels — than the record set in 2018. Almost all of it will be consumed by the time the 2022 crop is ready for harvest, thanks to voracious demand for the oilseed, which is used in livestock rations, in foods ranging from salad dressing to baked goods, and in biofuels. Nearly half of U.S. soybeans are exported.
All the same, the USDA lowered its forecast for the season-average soybean price in its WASDE report to $12.35 a bushel, “down 55 cents reflecting larger supplies.” Still, the farm-gate price would be the highest in seven years and the crop would be worth nearly $55 billion. Record-high yields were forecast in a dozen states, including Illinois and Iowa, which would lead the nation with a combined 1.29 billion bushels. The U.S. average yield of 51.5 bushels an acre would be the second highest ever.
In its monthly crop report, the USDA said the corn crop would be the second largest on record, 15 billion bushels, marginally larger than forecast a month ago. Average corn yields of 176.5 bushels an acre would be the second highest on record.
The wheat stockpile, forecast to be 580 million bushels next June 1, would be the smallest in 14 years. The wheat carry-over in June 2020 was a burdensome 1.028 billion bushels, the equivalent of a six-month supply.
The USDA’s forecasts of the corn and soybean crops, and for the stockpiles on hand next fall when the 2022 crop is mature, were larger than expected by traders. Prices for corn and soybeans fell in futures markets. During trading on Tuesday, soybeans were down by 30 cents a bushel, or 2.4 percent, and corn by more than 10 cents a bushel, or 2 percent.