The harmful effects of fertilizer runoff are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, as more extreme precipitation washes excess nutrients into U.S. waterways, causing dead zones, says a study published in Science.
“The authors found that future climate change-driven increases in rainfall in the United States could boost nitrogen runoff by as much as 20 percent by the end of the century,” says The New York Times.
The dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, which is created largely by farm runoff draining down the Mississippi River, is expected to cover an area approximately the size of Vermont, nearly 10,000 square miles, according to research from Louisiana State University,” says the Times.
While the study didn’t specifically model the impact of nutrient runoff on waterways outside the U.S., the authors said that the impacts are likely to be similar — and especially damaging in East, South and Southeast Asia given that those regions hold more than half the world’s population and rely heavily on surface water.