U.S. farmers are headed for massive corn and soybean harvests this year that will mean another year of large stockpiles and will throttle farm-gate prices into the summer of 2019, according to updated USDA projections. The bumper crops would be the latest in a string of record-setting harvests that began early this decade.
The four largest US soybean crops were grown from 2014-17, including back-to-back records set in 2016 and 2017. The five largest corn crops were grown from 2013-17, with the record of 15.148 billion bushels set in 2016. The USDA projects a corn crop of 14.39 billion bushels this year, the third-largest ever, and a soybean crop of 4.32 billion bushels, the second-largest on record. The projections assume normal weather and yields from planting of 90 million acres apiece of corn and soybeans.
Corn is the long-time No. 1 crop in America. Soybean plantings have exceeded corn only once, in 1983, when the Reagan administration, grappling with crop surpluses, encouraged farmers to fallow large amounts of land. The USDA projects that soybeans will become the most widely planted crop in 2019, and keep the lead for years to come. The advantage would be comparatively small, less than 2 percent of total acreage devoted to both crops.
Growers are projected to expand plantings of wheat and cotton, the two other major U.S. field crops, this year; corn and soybeans are expected to be marginally smaller than in 2017. Wheat plantings of 46.5 million acres would yield a crop of 1.84 billion bushels, the second-smallest since 2006. USDA chief economist Robert Johansson said corn and soybeans are likely to be more profitable than wheat in the next decade, which would keep wheat area at comparatively low amounts — below 50 million acres — through 2027.
Cotton plantings are projected at 13.3 million acres, up 5.5 percent from 2017, but production would fall 8 percent, to 19.5 million bales, due to lower yields. USDA analysts said the newly created “seed cotton” subsidy would boost plantings this year. The farm-gate price for cotton is expected to fall to 63 cents per pound, down by 6 cents from current levels, although world production is falling and apparel makers are using more cotton.
There will be plenty of meat for consumers to eat. Beef production would rise 5.5 percent, pork 5 percent and poultry 2.3 percent this year. USDA has estimated per-capita meat consumption of 222.6 pounds in 2018, compared to 217 pounds in 2017 and 214.6 pounds in 2016.
Although commodity prices suggest soybeans will be more profitable than corn, USDA said other factors mitigate against a large expansion of soybean acres. Nitrogen fertilizer prices are down, making corn less expensive to grow. “In addition, the potential for a sharp increase in soybean area is dampened by rotational constraints with the possibility of yield drag and increased disease and pest pressure from planting soybeans-on-soybeans,” said USDA.