The Trump administration’s proposal for stricter enforcement of the 90-day limit on food stamps for able-bodied adults would most often hit people living alone in deep poverty, said an analysis by Mathematica Policy Research that was released today. More than 1 million people would be affected by the proposed regulation, according to the issue brief; the USDA estimates that 755,000 would lose benefits.
“USDA should carefully consider whether this change promotes the ultimate goal of the SNAP program to reduce food insecurity,” said Giridhar Mallya of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, which commissioned the work. “The findings of this analysis show that USDA’s proposed rule would disproportionately affect some of the most vulnerable SNAP participants.”
The administration says its intent is to move SNAP recipients into work and self-sufficiency. Since welfare reform in the 1990s, able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs) ages 18 to 49 have been limited to three months of food stamps in a three-year period unless they work at least 20 hours a week or take part in job training or workfare. States can waive the 90-day limit for areas that have high unemployment or too few jobs. The proposed rule would eliminate surplus labor as a reason for a waiver and require a higher jobless rate — 7 percent — in regions where long-term unemployment is higher than the U.S. average.
Based on 2017 data, Mathematica said 1.2 million ABAWDs lived in waiver areas and did not work at least 20 hours a week. Nearly 9 in 10 of them had a household income at or below 50 percent of the poverty rate. Eight in 10 lived alone. One in nine worked though less than the 20-hour-a-week threshold.
“The potential impact varies by state and depends on a variety of factors, including state agency policies, the local labor market, and the characteristics and circumstances of the participants,” said Mathematica. Some states may offer a training slot to SNAP recipients facing a loss of benefits, while others may tap other exemptions from the time limit. “Both the local labor market and SNAP participants’ job readiness will affect their ability to find work.”
Some participants “may choose to forgo SNAP benefits and rely on other available resources, such as food banks or family members,” said the analysis.
“We haven’t tried to quantify the behavioral responses,” replied Mathematica senior researcher Karen Cunnyngham, when asked how many people might find enough weekly work to avoid the time limit on benefits.
Five states — California, Illinois, New York, Georgia, and Michigan — account for 721,000 of the 1.2 million ABAWDs that would be affected, according to Mathematica’s review of SNAP data.
“Our analysis shows that the impacts of these rule changes are not uniform,” the group said. “A lot depends on a state’s choices around waiver policies and the health of the state’s economy.”
The administration is also working on a regulation to reduce the number of people who are considered for food stamps — so-called categorical eligibility — because they are helped by welfare programs. The White House proposed both approaches in its fiscal 2020 budget plan, asking for the broader application of SNAP work requirements and for a change in the rules on categorical eligibility.