Russia’s months-long drive to shut off Ukraine grain exports has produced both financial and diplomatic gains for President Putin, said a Washington think tank.
“Securing ample and low-cost export routes for Ukrainian grain and increasing investments to rebuild Ukraine’s agricultural sector are crucial to to defusing what has become one of Russia’s most potent weapons in its war with Ukraine,” said the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Warfare in Ukraine, including efforts to revive the Black Sea grain initiative, was expected to be a major issue for the UN General Assembly, which convenes on Monday for its annual “high level week” of speeches and debate.
The USDA estimates Ukraine’s wheat exports this marketing year will be down nearly 40 percent, to 11 million tonnes, and corn exports down by nearly a quarter, to 19.5 million tonnes, from their levels before the Russian invasion in February 2022. Agriculture generated 41 percent of Ukraine’s export revenue and 10 percent of Ukrainian GDP before the war.
“While Ukraine’s agricultural production has fallen due to Russia’s attacks, Russia’s own agricultural production has soared due to favorable growing conditions,” wrote the CSIS analysts, led by Caitlin Welsh. The USDA estimates Russia will export 49 million tonnes of wheat this year, an increase of nearly 50 percent from before the invasion.
“Russia also seeks political benefit from its expanded agricultural exports,” said the CSIS blog. “As Ukraine’s agricultural exports decline, Russia aims to make up for the shortfall, thereby increasing its influence in countries reliant on the Black Sea for their food.” Many of the nations that refrained in 2022 from condemning Russia for the invasion were dependent on Russian grain.
Over the weekend, two cargo ships arrived at the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk to pick up 22,000 tonnes of wheat for delivery to Africa and Asia, said Ukrainian officials. They were the first vessels to sail to Ukraine since the Black Sea grain initiative was terminated in mid-July. Russia reportedly attacked Ukrainian ports on the Danube River.
Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia said they would continue to ban imports of Ukrainian grain in defiance of an EU decision, reported CNN. The eastern European nations said they were protecting their farmers livelihoods from being swept away in a flood of imports.
The CSIS analysts pointed to rancor in the EU over Ukrainian grain shipments as another of the benefits for Russia. “Russia forces the European Union to continue to reckon with market disruptions caused by Ukraine’s shifting export routes,” they wrote. “So long as Russia can manipulate Ukrainian agricultural exports, it can threaten Ukraine’s economy and global food security in order to achieve its political aims.”