Low producer prices and high input costs will discourage grain production in Ukraine this year, said an IFPRI blog, as the Russian invasion of its neighbor hit the one-year mark. “Reduced plantings in Ukraine mean that the world will need to produce additional grains and oilseeds to help rebuild stocks and moderate price levels,” wrote IFPRI senior research fellow Joe Glauber on Thursday.
Ukrainian grain production could decline by 12 to 15 million tonnes of wheat and 15 to 17 million tonnes of corn from 2022 levels, according to private estimates. Before the invasion, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, a major corn exporter, and global leader in sunflower oil exports.
Grain prices spiked immediately after last year’s invasion at the prospect of a food price crisis and the interruption of shipments to import-reliant countries in the Middle East and North Africa. “Yet as the war continued through 2022, international markets adjusted and adapted, and — while high prices and other problems persist — the worst-case scenarios for agricultural trade and food security were largely averted,” said Glauber.
“The impact of the war on Ukraine’s agriculture will be felt even more sharply in 2023,” he said. The invasion shut down exports of the 2021 crop and then suppressed prices on local grain markets for 2022 crops because of the additional cost and slow pace of shipments.