One-third of the 23 Democratic senators facing re-election in 2018 sit on the Agriculture Committee, including the panel’s top Democrat, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, a stalwart defender of food stamps in the final negotiations for the 2014 farm law. President-elect Donald Trump carried four of the states where Ag Committee Democrats will have to decide soon whether to run for another term, a sign of Republican strength.
Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota may be one of the most vulnerable of the farm-state Democrats. The former state attorney general won her Senate term by 1 percentage point in 2012 over Republican Rick Berg, North Dakota’s at-large representative. Heitkamp opted earlier this year against running for governor, a decision that puts her under scrutiny for the Senate in a state that Trump carried by 36 points. However, the Cook Political Report rates the race as “likely Democratic,” defined as not competitive at the moment but with “the potential to become engaged.”
Democrat Joe Donnelly of reliably conservative Indiana took 50 percent of the vote in winning election to the Senate in 2012 in an improbable year. Republicans defeated long-time Sen. Richard Lugar in the primary election in favor of Richard Mourdock, who got 44.3 percent of the vote in the general election, with Libertarian Andrew Horning polling 5.7 percent. Cook lists the race as “leans Democratic,” meaning a competitive race where one party has an advantage. Trump carried Indiana by 19 points.
Sherrod Brown of Ohio won his second term in 2012 with 50.3 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee, state treasurer Josh Mandel, got 45.1 percent and an independent got 4.65 percent. The Cook Report lists Ohio as likely Democratic for the 2018 Senate election. Trump carried Ohio, often a swing state, by 9 points.
Stabenow, who won her third term with 59 percent of the vote in 2012, also is in the “likely Democratic” race, according to Cook. Trump held a tiny lead in the state but a formal winner has yet to be named.
The three other Democrats facing re-election from the Agriculture Committee — Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York State and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania — are listed by Cook as “solid Democratic,” meaning they are not expected to be closely contested. The three senators won by comfortable margins in 2012.
While seven of the nine Democrats on the committee are up for re-election, none of its Republican members hold expiring terms. Overall, Democrats must defend far more Senate seats than Republicans. Two independents, Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, also face re-election. The party in power “almost always loses seats in a mid-term” election, said the Cook Report.
Rural America voted 2-to-1 for Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton. The blowout “is seen as a warning sign for Democrats in 2018,” said Politico. Several farm-state lawmakers will be up for re-election … Beyond 2018, there are deep concerns the party is losing the already-weak support it had in rural America and there don’t seem to be any serious efforts to stop the bleeding.”
The Daily Yonder said the rural-urban split in voting widened in this year’s presidential election.