For decades, corn has been the most widely planted U.S. crop. But the era of “king corn” is ending and the reign of soybeans, the versatile oilseed and the more profitable crop, is dawning, said the Agriculture Department in its 10-year agricultural projections.
Growers will plant equal amounts of corn and soybeans next spring — 91 million acres apiece — based on current market conditions and expected global harvests, according to the USDA’s so-called baseline. Beginning in 2019, annual soybean plantings would exceed corn, and that edge should continue through 2027, the final year in the USDA’s projections, sometimes by as much as 4 million acres. The shift represents a profound upheaval of the traditional lineup of the four major U.S. field crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton.
If the USDA’s projections hold up, 2018 will be the third year in a row of record soybean plantings and would likely bring the third record-setting harvest in a row. Soybean plantings trailed corn by only 200,000 acres this year — 90.4 million acres of corn vs. 90.2 million acres of soybeans.
Thanks to a string of bumper harvests, both crops have built huge stockpiles that weigh on market prices. But soybeans are more alluring for the new year. Growers would see an average net return of $279 an acre, compared with $236 for corn, according to USDA projections of returns over variable costs, such as seed, fertilizer, and pesticides. Land and equipment are considered fixed costs.
The only previous time soybean plantings exceeded corn plantings was in 1983, when the Reagan administration’s Payment-in-Kind (PIK) program reduced corn acreage by 30 percent. PIK was created in reaction to a record-large 1982 corn crop and surpluses of other crops. Under PIK, the government gave surplus commodities to corn, wheat, and cotton growers who idled cropland beyond the amount required when they signed up for crop subsidies.
As a result, corn growers planted 60.2 million acres in 1983, compared with 81.9 million acres the previous year, while soybean growers planted 63.8 million acres, down from 70.9 million acres the year before. U.S. crop acreage contracted in the following years as the agriculture sector entered a recession.
Wheat sowings in 2018 are projected to be the smallest on record — 45 million acres, down by 1 million acres from this year, which was the lowest total since the USDA began tracking wheat plantings in 1921. Large supplies worldwide are limiting the demand for U.S. wheat. The USDA projected that next year, plantings of upland cotton would drop to 11.2 million acres, down by 1.2 million acres, in the face of declining market prices. Plantings are not projected to top 11 million acres again until 2024.
Corn, soybeans, and wheat are the foundation of the U.S. diet. The crops, particularly wheat, are consumed directly as food, processed into ingredients for food, and used in rations for food animals. The crops are also used for an array of non-food products, including biofuels.
To see the USDA tables, click here.