U.S. farmers are likely to plant more land to soybeans in 2015 than they did this year despite lower commodity prices, says economist Dan O’Brien of Kansas State University. In a Soybean Market Outlook, O’Brien sees a 60 percent chance for 86.1 million acres of soybeans in the new year, up 2 million acres from this year. With normal weather and yields, that would bring a crop of 3.85 billion bushels, second-largest on record after the 3.958 billion-bushel crop this year. With the second big crop in a row, soybean ending stocks would climb by 40 percent, to be the largest in nine years, and the farm-gate price for soybeans would drop to $8.75 a bushel, compared to the $10 per bushel forecast for this year’s crop.
The KSU scenario calls for larger plantings than projected by USDA, which says soybean plantings will hold steady at 2014’s 82.2 million acres. Private consultant Informa has estimated 88 million acres of soybeans in 2015, according to traders.