Soy crop to set record, corn to fall short, says KSU | Food and Environment Reporting Network

U.S. soybean growers will harvest a record 3.6 billion bushels of the oilseed this fall but the corn crop, at 13.3 billion bushels, will run 4 percent short of a record, estimated economist Dan O’Brien of Kansas State University. O’Brien also forecast 2014/15 end stocks of 1.3 billion bushels of corn, largest since 2009/10, and 417 million bushels of soybeans, largest since 2006/07. His figures for crop production are lower than analysts in Chicago expect to see from USDA on Friday.

In making his calculations, O’Brien used USDA’s latest data, from June 30, on crop plantings and grain stockpiles. He said yields are likely to be lower than the records projected by USDA. He put likely yields at 159.4 bushels an acre for corn and 43.0 bushels an acre for soybeans. Using the June 30 data and USDA projected yields would bring a corn crop of 13.9 billion bushels, just below the 2013 record, and a record soybean crop of 3.8 billion bushels. End stocks would be 1.65 billion bushels of corn and 489 million bushels of soybeans.

In either case, with continued good weather, U.S. farmers could produce gargantuan corn and soybean crops for the second year in a row and drive commodity prices to the lowest level in seven or eight years.