New USDA data show that SNAP enrollment declined last fall from a pandemic-driven high over the summer. In June 2020, 43 million Americans were enrolled in SNAP; by November, the number had dropped to 41.4 million.
Although participation in the program remains significantly higher than before the pandemic, experts attribute the dip to declining unemployment rates. Another factor contributing to the decline is that by last fall, jobless Americans had greater access to benefits compared to early in the pandemic, when many waited months following job loss to receive unemployment payments.
“After the initial shock to employment, the numbers are coming back down,” said Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, director of the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University. “But they’re still elevated, and if there’s one thing we know about recessions, it’s that lower-income people suffer from them for longer.”
Although USDA and census data give a picture of SNAP participation nationally, rates can vary significantly by state, said Dottie Rosenbaum, senior fellow for food assistance at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Certain states had an easier time disbursing unemployment benefits early in the pandemic; as the country begins to reopen this spring, drastic differences between states will complicate the interpretation of national-level data.
Still, Rosenbaum said, even at its peak, SNAP enrollment during the pandemic has not exceeded levels seen during the Great Recession, which she attributes “at least in part to Pandemic Unemployment Assistance,” which expanded eligibility to the self-employed, gig workers, and Americans with shorter work histories.
The Census Household Pulse Survey provides a more recent look at SNAP participation. According to February data, 10.6 percent of respondents said they were enrolled in the program, down from 11.6 percent in November.
Schanzenbach expects participation to keep declining as states reopen their economies amid rising vaccination rates, though she noted that SNAP enrollment continues to far eclipse pre-pandemic levels (in February 2020, 36.8 million Americans participated in SNAP). Still, rates of food insecurity have declined consistently since December, with a significant drop in January that has flattened since. “Across all groups, things are looking better,” she said. “The trend is heading in the right direction.”