Searing drought in the central and southern Plains will result in the smallest winter wheat crop since 2002 and the second smallest in 47 years, said the USDA in its first estimate of the summer harvest. Winter wheat is the dominant U.S. variety, so the smaller crop — down 6 percent from last year — would allow some reduction in a U.S. stockpile that equals a six-month supply.
Drought conditions are worst in Kansas — the No. 1 winter wheat state — Oklahoma, and Texas, and roughly one of every four acres of winter wheat planted this year will not be worth harvesting. In its Crop Production report, the USDA estimated that 24.8 million acres would be harvested, a record low for winter wheat. Growers sowed 32.7 million acres of winter wheat for harvest this year, the smallest area since 1909.
The projected winter wheat crop of 1.192 billion bushels would include 647 million bushels of hard red winter wheat, grown mainly in the Plains, where the drought was severe. Output would be 14 percent below last year, said the USDA. Hard red winter wheat, with medium to high protein content, is used in bread and ground for all-purpose flour.
In the companion WASDE report, the USDA projected a soybean crop of 4.28 billion bushels, which would be the third-largest crop ever, and a corn crop of 14.04 billion bushels, the fourth-largest total on record. High demand will cut into ample U.S. stockpiles and boost commodity prices, which have been in a rut since 2013. Corn consumption is forecast to exceed production by a half-billion bushels.