Forced by the trade war, China, the world’s largest soybean importer, and the United States, the largest grower, are on the prowl for new soybean trading partners, though neither will fully replace the other soon, said the USDA on Thursday. It forecast the smallest U.S. soybean exports in four years and the smallest Chinese soybean imports in three years.
In the USDA’s monthly WASDE report, analysts estimated that U.S. soybean exports would total 1.9 billion bushels this trade year, a cut of 160 million bushels from their October forecast. Chinese soybean imports were forecast for 90 million tonnes during 2018/19, down 4 million tonnes from last month’s prediction. Since the trade war began in July, the USDA has slashed its estimate of U.S. exports by 17 percent and Chinese imports by 13 percent.
In the past, China bought 1 of every 3 bushels of soybeans grown in the United States. “South America is expected to capture more of China’s soybean market, while the United States is likely to capture more market share in the rest of the world, particularly in the second half of the marketing year, when those imports typically trend higher,” said the USDA.