Prospects for the winter wheat crop are broadly favorable worldwide, said the International Grains Council, which forecasts an all-wheat harvest this year of 735 million metric tons, a 2 percent decline from 2016/17 that will do little to cut into stockpiles that have swelled by nearly 25 percent in three years. “Only a small contraction in end-season stocks is expected,” said the council’s monthly Grain Markets Report.
“Assuming a marginal decline in harvested area, and with yields dropping back closer to average, total (2017/18 wheat) production is tentatively projected at 735 million tonnes, down by 2 percent year-on-year,” said the report. Wheat production has blossomed since 2013/14 and year-end stocks, a way of measuring supplies, are forecast to be 45 million tonnes larger at the end of the current marketing year than three years earlier.
World grain production for 2016/17 was estimated at 2.094 billion tonnes, up 4 percent from the IGC’s previous forecast due to larger wheat, corn and barley crops.