In its first full set of projections for the “new” crops worldwide, the International Grains Council forecasts a modest decline in global grain production that will lead to a sharp reduction in the grain “carryover” at the end of 2018/19. “A fall in wheat output is partially offset by increases for maize [corn], barley, and sorghum,” said the council, which is based in London.
“Maize accounts for much of the expected growth in consumption, with that grain also mostly behind an 8 percent drop in world stocks,” the group said. The carryover, estimated at 560 million tonnes, would be the smallest in three years. Grain consumption will be aided by the sixth year in a row of larger world trade in grains, said the council.
The council’s Grain Market Report forecasts world grain production of 2.087 billion tonnes in 2018/19. That includes 741 million tonnes of wheat, down by 2 percent from the previous year. Corn and rice production would be marginally higher in 2018/19, as would soybeans. China and the United States are forecast to see the greatest reductions in corn stocks, down by a combined 38 million tonnes.