Analysts expect the crop report to show the corn and soybean crops are 2 percent larger than USDA estimated a month ago, meaning a corn crop of 14.3 billion bushels and a soybean crop of 3.9 bushels. With larger crops, the corn surplus would rise by 11 percent or 200 million bushels and the soybean surplus would rise by 5-7 percent from the August estimate The “carryover” at the end of this marketing year would be 2 billion bushels of corn, largest in 10 years, and 450-460 million bushels of soybeans, largest in eight years, according to a survey of traders.
Soybean futures prices are sagging on the prospect of a record crop. Soybeans for November delivery, the most widely traded contract at the Chicago Board of Trade, fell to $9.94 a bushel on Tuesday, It was the first time the contract fell below $10 a bushel. “The November contract will next week take over as the spot contract, after the expiry of the September lot,” said AgriMoney. “A spot contract has not stood below $10 a bushel since September 2010.”
The corn and soybean crops are in extraordinary condition – 74 percent rated as good or excellent at the start of this week, said the Crop Progress report. Crop maturity is slightly behind the five-year average, however. Fifteen percent of corn is mature, compared to the usual 26 percent for early September.