Barring a breakthrough in negotiations between the White House and Congress, the partial government shutdown will force the USDA to delay next week’s scheduled release of potentially market-moving reports that take a final look at the 2018 crops and provide the first hints, based on a survey of growers, of this year’s production. USDA officials are expected to meet today to discuss a timeline for the reports.
“If the shutdown lasts past Jan. 4, they will be delayed,” said a USDA spokesman earlier this week. The initial USDA reports are followed worldwide and frequently affect commodity prices.
The only time that the USDA has canceled its monthly Crop Production report was in October 2013, at the end of a 17-day government shutdown. Monthly crop reporting began in 1866. The crop report has been delayed occasionally due to severe snowstorms in Washington. Release of the crop report and the companion WASDE report, which assesses crop production and usage around the globe, was postponed for two days in September 2001 because of the Sept. 11 terror attacks.
At issue this time are a year-opening set of reports, scheduled to be released Jan. 11, that include estimates of winter wheat seedings, a key indicator for projecting three-quarters of U.S. wheat output, and stockpiles of the leading U.S. grains crops. Also included are the WASDE report, the January crop report, which focuses on citrus, and the Crop Production Annual report, which is often the definitive word on the fall harvest. In 2018, growers reaped the largest U.S. soybean crop ever and the second-largest corn crop on record.
USDA statisticians and economists need four or five days to assemble the material that goes into the reports, which are released after a high-security “lockup” in the USDA’s South Building, near the National Mall. As a practical matter, a lingering shutdown would interfere with producing the reports in time for the Jan. 11 release. Most USDA employees are furloughed because funding for most USDA activities expired last month.
The crop report, the WASDE report, and the quarterly Grain Stocks report are among the government’s three dozen “principal federal economic indicators,” which include the monthly unemployment and inflation reports by the Labor Department and the monthly Commerce Department report on gross domestic product.
Most of the USDA’s statistical reporting is on hold for the shutdown’s duration, including reports on large sales of major commodities to overseas buyers and the weekly tally of sales for foreign delivery. Meat inspectors are at work, however, as are the port inspectors on guard for plant and livestock diseases and pests. The Market News Service, which provides information about commodity prices and sales volumes, is also operating. Public nutrition programs, such as SNAP and school lunch, are funded for this month, said the USDA.
Trump tariff payments will continue for producers who already certified their 2018 production with the USDA. Enrollment for the so-called Market Facilitation Program payments is in abeyance because the USDA’s local offices are closed. The deadline to sign up is Jan. 15.