Farmers growing the three major U.S. crops — corn, soybeans and wheat — can expect a sizable decline in the average sales price for this year’s harvest instead of the mild upturn that was forecast in late February, said the USDA. In its first projection of the fall harvest, the USDA said season-average prices for the three crops would be 8 to 10 percent lower than anticipated at its Outlook Forum.
The WASDE report cited larger supplies for all three crops and smaller exports of corn and wheat than the current marketing year. Exports of soybeans, the major target in the Sino-U.S. trade war, would rise less than 1 percent during the 2019/20 trade year. But it would boost the U.S. share of the world market “to 35 percent from the 2018/19 record low of 32 percent,” thanks to the lower and more competitive U.S. price, said USDA.
Grain prices — and farm income — have been in a rut since the collapse of the commodity boom in 2014. At the Outlook Forum, USDA analysts said farm-gate prices for 2019 corn and wheat would be 5 cents higher and soybeans would be 20 cents higher than the average paid for the 2018 crops. The forecast assumed continuation of Chinese tariffs on U.S. ag exports. On Friday, USDA said the three crops would fetch lower prices: Corn, at $3.30 a bushel, would be 35 cents lower; wheat, at $4.70 a bushel, would be 50 cents lower; and soybeans, at $8.10 a bushel, would be 70 cents lower than expected in late winter.