The continued decline in season-average corn and soybean prices since the peaks of 2022 will pinch farmer returns from the crops for the second year in a row, said three analysts writing at the farmdoc daily blog. They estimated that operator and land returns would fall below $300 an acre, levels last seen from 2014 to 2019.
With highly productive land renting for nearly $360 an acre, grain farmers could lose money on this year’s corn and soybean crops if they do not own the cropland, wrote agricultural economists Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University and Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey of the University of Illinois.
“Current projections suggest a second year of low to negative returns for many farms,” they said. “Further cost adjustments and strategies should be considered and implemented, particularly if current commodity price levels persist as planning for the 2025 crop year approaches.”
Costs of pesticides, fuel, and crop insurance are down from projections made in January, but interest rates are up. The latest projected average price for soybeans of $11.30 a bushel was down 20 cents, though the estimated corn price of $4.50 a bushel was unchanged. “These price projections represent returns to price levels closer to [marketing year] averages since 2006,” the analysts wrote.