Russia’s newly announced duty on wheat exports will discourage sales but exports still would be the second-highest ever, says USDA’s Grain: World Markets and Trade report. It estimates exports of 20 million tonnes, down by 2 million tonnes from the previous estimate because of the duty. The duty, which is part of an effort to cool rapidly rising domestic wheat prices, is expected to make Russian wheat uncompetitive. Russia was the fourth-largest wheat grower in 2014 and would rank No 4 among exporters in the current marketing year even at the reduced export total.
“Russia’s exports are expected to continue through January as exporters fulfill contracts before the duty takes effect,” said USDA. “The global impact on trade is expected to be minimal because other exporter supplies are abundant.” The Middle East and North Africa are the major customers for Russian wheat. The European Union and Ukraine are best positioned to replace Russia in those markets, said USDA.