Nationwide, women are having fewer children and waiting longer to have them than a decade ago. But one pattern is unchanged: rural women, on average, are younger when they give birth and have more children than women living in metropolitan areas, says the CDC. Indeed, the gap between urban and rural fertility rates has widened even as overall fertility rates — the expected number of births per 1,000 women — have declined.
Some analysts say the recession of 2008-09 and the slow economic recovery are major factors in the decline in the U.S. birth rate since 2007. Demographer Ken Johnson , of the Carsey School of Public Policy, says the decline raises the question of whether family size will rebound from a record low birth rate.
The CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics said fertility rates fell among white, black and Hispanic women, and the average age at birth increased for all three groups since 2007. The rural fertility rate averaged 2,207 children per 1,000 women in 2007 vs. 1,950 in 2017. In large-population metropolitan counties the rate was 1,712 per 1,000 women in 2017, compared to 2,096 in 2007.
Rural woman averaged 23.2 years of age when they had their first child in 2007, rising to 24.5 years in 2017. In large metropolitan counties, the average age was 25.9 years in 2007 and 27.7 years in 2017.
Household income tends to be lower and the poverty rate higher in rural America compared to urban areas.
Professor John Rowe of Columbia University told the Washington Post that he expects the U.S. fertility rate to continue to drop. “The emphasis should not just be on the number of people but their productivity,” he said. “So we have to invest in education to enhance the productivity of younger individuals to compensate for reduction in numbers.”