Right now – Stockpiles of U.S. wheat, corn and soybeans are smaller than expected by traders, mostly due to larger exports. The corn stockpile, forecast for 1.146 billion bushels at the end of this marketing year, would be sharply smaller than traders expected ahead of the report. Soybean ending stocks would be a razor-thin two-week supply and to get that, 90 million bushels would be imported – four times the usual amount. Tight corn and soybean supplies will bolster market prices.
Real soon – The winter wheat crop was estimated at 1.403 billion bushels, down 9 pct from last year and smallest since 2006. Hard red winter wheat, grown on the Plains and used for making bread and all-purpose flour, would be roughly the same output as 2013. Soft red winter wheat, grown east of the Mississippi River and used in cakes, pastries and crackers, would be down 21 percent from 2013, to 209 million bushels. Harvest will begin in a few weeks. Drought has worsened in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas – three major winter wheat states – since USDA surveyed field conditions.
This fall – Farmers are projected to harvest the second record-setting corn crop in a row and a record-large soybean crop. Growers said in March they would plant a record amount of land to soybeans and the fifth-largest corn area since World War II. USDA projects higher yields than some private analysts, so it foresees much larger supplies than do traders. Corn and soybean prices are on the way down from records set by the drought-shortened 2012 crop. A wet spring has raised concern about how much corn will be planted later than ideal for yields.
For USDA’s winter wheat estimate, click here. For USDA’s corn, soybean and all-wheat projections, click here.