The global rice market is still feeling the impact of India’s decision last August to limit its rice exports in the name of battling high domestic food prices, said two IFPRI analysts. “Rice-importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa have felt the greatest impacts, scrambling to find alternative sources even as global rice prices have risen more than 20 percent since India imposed its restrictions,” they wrote in a blog.
India is ordinarily the world’s second-largest rice grower, behind China, and the leading exporter. The USDA estimates India will provide one-third of global rice exports in 2023/24, compared to its usual two-fifths. The El Niño weather pattern brought dry conditions that reduced production in South and Southeast Asia this season. “Forecasts projecting that the current El Niño will wane over the next few months offer some hope for improved future production prospects,” wrote analysts Joe Glauber and Abdullah Mamun of the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Published reports suggest India could maintain a 20 percent duty on exports of parboiled rice beyond the scheduled expiration on March 20. There is also speculation that the restrictions on non-basmati, parboiled, and broken rice will remain in force until after India’s general elections in late spring. “Given this uncertainty, if India exports continue at their current pace (50 percent of normal) beyond the elections, it seems likely that global export forecasts will have to be adjusted downward, likely resulting in higher prices and more pressure on food security in rice importing countries,” said the blog.