The new soybean marketing year opens on Saturday, and early orders for the U.S. crop are the smallest in years, said a research brief from rural lender CoBank. Global demand is down in the face of the strong dollar, slow economic growth, and uncertainties about U.S. trade policy in an election year.
“Total U.S. new crop export sales are the lowest since 2008, aside from the trade war low in 2019,” said Tanner Ehmke, CoBank’s lead grain and oilseed economist. As of Aug. 22, exporters had booked 10.16 million metric tons of soybeans for delivery overseas in the 2024/25 trade year, according to USDA data. More than one-fourth of the tonnage was bound for China, the largest soybean market in the world.
“The slow start to the export season, though, does not necessarily mean a bad year ahead,” said Ehmke. “We see the potential for several developments that could bolster exports later in the year.” Lower interest rates, an upturn in Chinese demand, smaller crops in South America, and stricter European rules on soybean imports could rejuvenate the outlook for U.S. soybean exports, he said.