World soybean production will hit a record 308 million tonnes this year, up 8 percent from the previous season and fractionally larger than an estimate made a month ago, said the International Grain Council. In its Grain Market Report, the IGC said “planting weather in South America was more favourable and, with potentially large 2014/15 outturns in Brazil and Argentina, as well as a bumper US harvest,” peak soybean production was in the cards. “The forecast for China’s 2014/15 imports is lifted slightly, to a peak of 73.5 (million tonnes), but annual growth is still expected to slow markedly after last year’s large purchases boosted domestic availabilities.”
A slight upturn in the corn crop in China, No 2 in the world to the United States, will bring a global harvest of 982 million tonnes, only 2 million tonnes below the record set last season. World wheat production was reduced marginally but still would be a record at 717 million tonnes, said IGC. It says with sowing of winter wheat almost complete in the northern hemisphere, all-wheat plantings are expected to expand by 1 percent for 2015/16.
The IGC report, with forecasts of large carryover supplies of corn, wheat and soybeans, reinforces the narrative of bumper crops and lower commodity prices in the near future. USDA’s monthly Agricultural Prices report illustrates the declines – corn sold for an average $6.02 a bushel in 2011 vs $3.57 during November; wheat for $7.44 in 2011 vs $5.96 in the just-ended month; and soybeans for $12.50 in 2011 vs $10.10 in the past month.