The record season-average wheat price is $7.77/bushel for the drought-hit 2012 crop. USDA forecast this year’s crop will fetch an average $7.30/bushel, the second-highest on record.
Farm-gate wheat prices could average a record $8.75/bushel if bad weather further reduces the U.S. wheat crop and draws down stockpiles, says economist Dan O’Brien of Kansas State University. Stocks peaked at 976 million bushels in 2010 and have fallen annually ever since. O’Brien assigns a 25 percent probability to a crop of 1.739 billion bushels due to lower yields and more land abandoned without harvest. The most likely outcome is USDA’s forecast of a 1.963 billion-bushel crop, he said, but with larger exports and stronger prices.
The record season-average wheat price is $7.77/bushel for the drought-hit 2012 crop. USDA forecast this year’s crop will fetch an average $7.30/bushel, the second-highest on record.