Russia will shatter its record for wheat production with a harvest of 72 million tonnes this year, far exceeding the record set in 2008 of 63.7 million tonnes, says USDA. The record crop will vault Russia ahead of the EU as the world’s top exporter for the first time, with the United States in third place, according to USDA’s Grain: World Markets and Trade report.
USDA raised its estimate of the Russian crop by 7 million tonnes from its July forecast “based on official reports of record winter wheat yields in western Russia and high potential yields for spring wheat in the Volga, Siberian and Ural districts.” The yield of 2.71 tonnes per hectare would be 21 percent above average. The winter wheat harvest is more than 85 percent complete; winter wheat provides 70 percent of the Russian crop. Harvest of spring-planted wheat usually begins in mid to late August.
While Russia is forecast to export 30 million tonnes of this year’s wheat crop, up 4.5 million tonnes from last year, the EU would ship only 24 million tonnes, compared to 33.8 million tonnes last season. The European wheat crop is forecast at 147.5 million tonnes, down 9 million tonnes from USDA’s July estimate. it would be the smallest EU crop in three years. “The reduction is due primarily to the rapid deterioration of wheat in France, the EU’s largest producer,” said USDA. The French crop suffered from rain, disease, flooding, fungus and lodging.
Russia set records for wheat exports in the past two years. The USDA circular said Russia would supplant the EU in sales to Africa and the Middle East, leaving room for the United States to “llkely expand exports to its traditional markets.” U.S. exports are forecast for 25.86 million tonnes, a hefty increase from 21.09 million tonnes last season.