Rice growers around the world are planting more land to rice this year, an additional 2.8 million hectares that the USDA estimates will result in a record harvest of 480.7 million tonnes, 10 million tonnes larger than last year. “The global area expansion is largely due to few economically viable alternative planting options, producer support programs in several Asian countries and a desire by many countries to rebuild stocks after El Niño reduced production in 2015/16,” said the monthly Rice Outlook report.
Global consumption of rice is forecast to exceed 470 million tonnes — also a record — so the stocks-to-use ratio, a gauge of the adequacy of supplies, will be a comfortable 22 percent when the 2017 crop comes onto the market.
Rice is one of the three leading staple crops of the world, along with wheat and corn. More so than corn or wheat, rice is consumed directly in the human diet. “Rice is the staple crop of half the world’s population,” says ricepedia.org. “Rice is by far the most important food crop for people in low- and lower-middle-income countries.”
The USDA says the largest increases in rice production will be in Southeast Asia, “where crops in nearly all countries were reduced in 2015/16 due to El Niño … The region is the world’s largest source of rice exports and includes several major importers.” Output in the region is forecast to rice 4 percent, to 115 million tonnes, double the global increase.
After two years of crops blistered by drought, Thailand, often the leading or second-largest exporter, is forecast for an 8-percent increase in rice production to 17 million tonnes. However, the crop still would be the second-smallest in 16 years.
The U.S. rice crop is projected at 231 million hundredweight, or 7.3 million tonnes, up 20 percent from 2015 and the third-largest crop ever. The larger crop would follow the return to production of 400,000 acres that went fallow last year. With carryover from the 2015 crop and the large crop this year, U.S. rice supplies would be the largest on record. This year’s rice crop is expected to fetch the lowest season-average price for U.S. growers in 10 years.
The United States is a relatively small producer but ranks in the top five exporters in the world because most rice is consumed near to where it is grown. Only one in 12 bushels of rice is sold on the world market.