Climate change is likely to reduce yields of major crops such as corn, wheat and rice on a large fraction of the world’s cropland by mid-century, says a team of researchers from the University of Birmingham in Britain. “Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand,” say the researchers in a paper published in the journal Nature Communications.
The study uses a new approach, which combines climate change models with data on maximum land productivity, to estimate the impact of climate change on land productivity over the next 50 to 100 years. Nearly half of the world’s corn and a third of its wheat and rice are grown in areas vulnerable to climate change. Croplands in tropical areas, including sub-Saharan Africa and South America are likely to see dramatic reductions in crop-growing potential, say the researchers. Land in temperate regions, such as central Canada and western and central Russia, would see increased yield potential.
Overall, the amount of land suitable for crop production would remain about the same. “The political, social and cultural effects of these major changes to the distribution of global cropland would be profound, as currently productive regions become net importers and vice versa,” said a university release.