While Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop seems to be coasting to his 17th term in the House, the three other Democrats who voted in committee for the Republican-written farm bill are scuffling to win a second term. One of them, Yadira Caraveo, with a winning margin of 1,632 votes in 2022, is challenged by a conservative Republican state legislator in Colorado’s most competitive House district.
The Caraveo-vs-Gabe Evans campaign is regarded as a toss-up by political handicappers. By contrast, Democratic Reps. Eric Sorensen of Illinois and Don Davis of North Carolina are rated as slight favorites. Bishop’s seat in southwestern Georgia is rated as safely Democrat and he has a huge fundraising advantage over his GOP opponent.
The most imperiled member of the House Agriculture Committee may be fourth-term Rep. Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican, who “is more than likely trailing in his rematch with state Sen. Tony Vargas,” said Sabato’s Crystal Ball in September. “He’s running in a district that leans to the Democrats for president.” Bacon won in 2020, although President Biden carried the district and he beat Vargas by three percentage points in 2022.
At the end of last week, the Crystal Ball said Davis’ race in northeastern North Carolina, previously a toss-up leaned toward the Democrat, who is challenged by Republican Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army colonel and founder of a cyberspace consulting firm. “Agriculture is a big subject in the race,” said WUNC-FM. “Buckhout says the country needs to tackle high energy costs to help farmers and lower the cost of food, while Davis touts his work opposing a ban on menthol cigarettes that would have hurt the tobacco industry.”
Sorensen has been rated as the likely winner for months in the working-class House district shaped like a capital “C” in Illinois, arcing westward from Rockford to the Mississippi River and curving eastward toward Peoria and Bloomington. Sorensen, a former TV weatherman, was elected with 52 percent of the vote in 2022. The Republican nominee is Joe McGraw, a retired judge.
Caraveo, a pediatrician, has raised nearly three times as much money as Evans for the race in a district that stretches from the Denver suburbs to Greeley. The Democrat says she has a record of bipartisanship and was running “to lower healthcare costs, address the high cost of housing, combat climate change, and protect a woman’s freedom to choose,” said Ballotpedia. Evans, who is homeschooling his children, said his key issues were border security, the cost of living and educational choice.
In the days before the House Agriculture Committee approved the Republican-written farm bill on a 33-21 vote on May 24, Democrats facing tough re-election races felt pressure to support the bill as a way to connect with rural voters. In the spring, Republicans seemed to be surging while Biden was the unpopular leader of Democrats.
Five of the 14 toss-up House races nationwide involve Agriculture Committee members, so those races could be pivotal in determining which party controls the House in 2025. At the moment, 212 seats are regarded as safe, likely, or leaning Republican, compared to 209 for Democrats. Agriculture Committee members account for eight of the 29 races that lean one way or the other.
Besides Caraveo, House Agriculture members in toss-up races are Democratic Rep. Marie Glusenkamp-Perez and Republican Reps. Marc Molinaro of New York State, John Durate of California, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon.
Among the four members of the Senate Agriculture Committee seeking re-election, Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat running for his fourth term, faces the tightest race, a toss-up against Republican Bernie Moreno, a Cleveland auto dealership owner. Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer, a Republican, faces an unexpectedly strong challenge from Dan Osborn, an independent and union leader. Democratic Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York State are regarded as certain victors. Senate Agriculture chair Debbie Stabenow is retiring and Sen. Mike Braun, an Indiana Republican, is running for governor.